Playbook

US heat electrification: a site screening playbook

How to screen a US industrial site for heat pump, MVR, and electric boiler opportunities in an afternoon, using grid carbon, fuel price ratios, and temperature lift

A fast, practical screening method for US industrial sites considering heat electrification. Uses grid carbon intensity, the electricity-to-gas price ratio, and required temperature lift to triage heat pump, MVR, and electric boiler opportunities before any detailed study.

FormatPDF · 24 pages · 9 min read
CostFree

What is inside

Read your grid before you read your processElectrifying heat only cuts carbon if the grid behind the meter is clean enough. We show how to use EPA eGRID subregion data, including marginal emission rates, to know whether electrification reduces or increases site emissions in your location.
The spark gap: electricity-to-gas price ratioA heat pump beats a gas boiler only when its COP clears the local fuel price ratio. We give the simple calculation that sets the minimum viable COP for your site, so you can tell at a glance whether the economics can work before modelling anything.
COP and temperature lift: the deciding variablesHeat pump performance falls as the temperature lift rises. Commercial high-temperature units reach COPs of roughly 2.5 to 4.0 for outputs around 100 to 150 degrees C. We map COP against lift so you can match technology to process temperature fast.
Choosing between heat pump, MVR, and electric boilerMechanical vapour recompression shines on evaporation and concentration duties. Heat pumps suit moderate-temperature process heat with a usable waste-heat source. Electric boilers fit peaking and low-utilisation duties. We give a triage rule for each.
Find the waste heat that makes the COPThe best electrification projects pump heat that is already on site. We show how to spot the recoverable waste streams, refrigeration reject, effluent, exhaust, that raise the source temperature and lift the achievable COP.
Navigate the post-OBBBA incentive landscapeFederal incentives shifted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act of 2025. We summarise where the 48C advanced energy project credit and 45X stand for industrial decarbonisation projects, and how that changes the screening calculus.

Heat electrification is the central question for US industrial decarbonisation, and most sites approach it backwards. They commission a detailed feasibility study before they know whether the basic economics or the local grid can support the idea at all. The result is wasted study budget and stalled projects.

This playbook flips the order. It gives you a fast screening method, runnable in an afternoon, that triages a site using three inputs you can find quickly: grid carbon intensity, the electricity-to-gas price ratio, and the temperature lift your process demands.

Screen first, study second

Use EPA eGRID subregion data to confirm the grid is clean enough for electrification to cut carbon
Calculate the minimum viable COP from your local fuel price ratio before modelling anything
Match heat pump, MVR, or electric boiler to your process temperature and waste-heat availability
Read the post-OBBBA position on 48C and 45X so incentives are in the picture from the start

EM3 works with industrial sites across the USA and Europe as engineering-led, vendor-independent advisers. This playbook reflects the rapid screening we apply before committing anyone to a detailed study.